SEMINAR - Rob Mellors

ABSTRACT

We examine the potential triggering relationship between large earthquakes and methane mud volcano eruptions. Our dataset consist of a 191-year catalog (1810 to 2001) of eruptions from 77 volcanoes in Azerbaijan, Central Asia, supplemented with reports from mud volcano eruptions in Japan, Romania, Pakistan and the Andaman Islands. We compare the occurrence of historical regional earthquakes (M > 5) with the occurrence of Azerbaijan mud volcano eruptions and find the number of same-day earthquake/eruption pairs is significantly higher than expected if the eruptions and earthquakes are independent Poisson processes. The temporal correlation between earthquakes and eruptions is most pronounced for nearby earthquakes (within ~100 km) that produce seismic intensities of Mercalli 6 or greater at the location of the mud volcano. This assumed magnitude/distance relationship for triggering observed in the Azerbaijan data is consistent with documented earthquake induced mud volcano eruptions elsewhere. We also find a weak correlation that heightened numbers of mud volcano eruptions occur within 1 year after large earthquakes. The distribution of yearly eruptions roughly approximates a Poisson process, although the repose times somewhat favor a nonhomogenous failure rate, which implies that the volcanoes require some time after eruption to recharge. The volcanic triggering likely results from some aspect of the seismic wave’s passage, but the precise mechanism remains unclear.


Rob's seminar title: "Mud volcanoes and earthquakes: was the Lusi mud volcano due to drilling or an earthquake?"; Wednesday the 18th of April 2007